Most million-dollar HDB buyers paid nothing above valuation — who is buying, and why it matters to you

Million-dollar HDB flats make headlines, and the headlines usually carry a whiff of madness — as if buyers are hurling bundles of cash at anything with a good view. A new PropNex survey of 110 such transactions from 2025 tells a much calmer story, and it is worth understanding, whether you are buying, selling or just watching.

First, what "COV" actually is

When you buy a resale flat, HDB assigns it an official valuation. If you agree to pay more than that valuation, the difference is called cash over valuation (COV) — and it must be paid entirely in cash. No CPF, no loan. COV is the purest measure of buyer heat: it is what people pay beyond what the flat is professionally judged to be worth.

The headline: most buyers paid no COV at all

About 69.1% of million-dollar flat buyers paid zero COV in 2025. Another 11.8% paid under S$40,000. Only around one buyer in eleven paid more than S$80,000 above valuation.

Read that again: for most of these deals, the agreed price simply was the valuation. These prices are not being inflated by bidding frenzies — they are being supported by the market value of the flats themselves: central locations (most deals were in Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Kallang Whampoa, Queenstown and Clementi), larger layouts, and remaining lease. The million-dollar figure reflects what the homes are worth on paper, not what emotion added on top.

And the segment is no longer rare: 1,002 flats had already crossed the million mark by mid-July this year, on track to match or beat 2025's record of 1,593.

Who is buying — three very different stories

The age breakdown is where this gets genuinely interesting, because three distinct groups are meeting at the same price point for completely different reasons:

• In their 30s — the first-timers. Around 40.5% of buyers aged 30–39 bought a million-dollar flat as their first home. These are dual-income households in their prime earning years — 43% earn S$10,001–16,000 a month — choosing location and space over a private address.
• In their 40s — the upgraders. 46% of the 40–49 group moved up from a smaller HDB flat, at the life stage where a growing family and a career peak arrive together.
• 60 and above — the rightsizers. This is the quiet story of the survey: 71% of older buyers had sold a private property and bought the million-dollar flat as their replacement home — unlocking equity for retirement while keeping a spacious, central home. For asset-rich retirees, the premium flat is not an extravagance; it is the sensible middle step.

Together, the 30s and 40s made up about 71% of all these purchases. In other words: ordinary working families at their strongest earning stage, not speculators.

Insights — what this means for you

• Buying at this level? The COV data is quietly reassuring: you are unlikely to be asked to hand over a large stack of cash beyond valuation. Negotiate from the valuation and transaction data, not from fear of "losing" the flat — the numbers say most deals close at fair value.
• Selling a large, central flat? The demand is real and the buyer pool is deep — but it is also rational. Price at the market and your flat can join these statistics; price on headline euphoria and you will be waiting a long time, because buyers are clearly not paying fantasy premiums.
• Thinking of rightsizing from a private property? Hundreds of households quietly did exactly this. If you are wondering what selling your condo would actually free up in cash and CPF, my sale proceeds calculator shows the honest waterfall in two minutes.
• A first-timer stretched by these prices? You are competing with S$10,000–20,000-a-month households in the central towns — but that is those towns, not everywhere. Check what your income comfortably supports with the affordability calculator before deciding whether to stretch, wait, or look one MRT stop further out.

Every one of these situations turns on your specific numbers — lease, location, income, timeline. If you would like to talk yours through, I am happy to help. No obligation at all.

Survey figures from PropNex, as reported by The Business Times (original article).